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RSS Feeds : Reiznersway Investment Articles :
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Stocks, Gold, Oil, the Dollar, and Inflation: A Potpourri in the Current "Unwinding of Debt" Crisis - 16-09-2008
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We have seen gold peak at over $1,000 per ounce at the time of the Bear Stearns bailout, and decline into a correction afterwards. I have written on my website in previous articles for many months that I was expecting a temporary pause in the upward progress of the gold and oil markets, and in many other inflation hedge style investments.
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The Obama Factor: Why His "Change" May Make You Economically Worse Off - 28-07-2008
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Americans are known for voting according to the health of their pocketbooks, and this year?s election may be no exception. While Ronald Reagan?s election in 1980 emerged out of the very noticeable dissatisfaction with the economic policies of the Carter years, Senator Obama may capitalize on similar sentiment among voters today in the race for the Presidency.
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How Obama May Bomb the Stock Market and the Economy in 2009-2010 - 20-06-2008
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I would like to draw your attention to the following web page graph denoting the Presidential futures market vote shares between Democratic and Republican candidates in the upcoming 2008 Presidential Election (as expressed in the Iowa Electronic Markets ? a respected election futures market):
http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_Pres08_VS.cfm.
This shows a potential Obama victory in the Presidential election, as the Iowa Electronics Markets has a good record at predicting election outcomes.
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Call to the Bernanke Federal Reserve: Round up the Debt! - 14-05-2008
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Sir John Templeton?s sentiment that never before in U.S. history has our government and its citizens accumulated the level of financial debt as we have recently was referenced in my February 28th, 2007 article. And it is the citizenry who usually suffers from the eventual debt reckoning, forcing a decline in their living standards, Templeton believes.
The last great debt liquidation in the United States happened as the 1930?s Depression unfolded. After the stock market Crash of October 1929, the fledgling Federal Reserve shrank the money supply by a third, presumably to fight inflation, only exasperating the severe economic downturn of the 1930?s.
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Strategies for the Coming Inflation of 2009-2010 - 01-04-2008
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The inflation that I believe may throttle though our economy in the late 2008-2010 period may not be the first inflationary economy many of us have ever seen. There is widespread commentary these days about the similarities between the stagflation/inflation that transpired in the 1970?s, and what may be starting to happen in that manner in 2008 and going forward. There are the behavioral similarities between the 1970?s and now: a rising gold price, increasing oil prices, an increase in the rate of inflation in certain commodities such as food, milk, farmland, copper, and a declining dollar (concurrent with a rise in the value of harder money currencies such as the Euro and the Swiss Franc).
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Stock Prices and the End of Disinflation - 29-02-2008
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The disinflation we have experienced in our economy from 1982-2007 (until what I call the silent inflation of the last couple years turned into a more evident broader inflation in recent months) has been in my opinion one of the major underpinnings of the long term bull market in equities during much of the former period. This time was punctuated by the 1987 crash and the 2000-2003 post bubble era bear market. In addition, the lower regulation and non interference with the economy ushered in by the Reagan administration over two decades ago created an atmosphere conducive to investing in stocks and bonds ? not to mention Paul Volker of the Federal Reserve Board being determined to successfully break the back of the 1970?s embedded inflation.
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The Stock Market and Economy: A Return to the 1970's in Form? - 18-01-2008
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We are entering, in my opinion, a period of economic and stock market turbulence that will affect the pocketbooks of our citizenry going forward. Commentators on financial television have been reluctant until recent days to make the analogy of the present period to the awful economic period of the 1970's, which has been my thesis for some time.
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The Hillary Clinton Stock Market and Economy: Three Areas to Consider - 09-12-2007
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Sometimes it takes a full generation to pass before the memories of important historical events are purged from the collective mindset of a society. For example, soon the living memories of World War II will fade into history, and will be available only through our media.
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Don't Fight Yesterday's Investment Battle: Why Betting on Last Year's Bull Market Always Fails - 06-11-2007
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Just when a new bull market in a category of investments (stocks or commodities, etc.) is percolating to the top, investors may still be immersed in the psychology of investing in the previous bull market's most favored investment. As the maturing trend dies out, investors may still try to find reasons to invest in that trend, even though it may be actually reversing, with some investors playing yesterday's game. This may happen just when the long-term trend for the mature trend may have turned down.
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Bulletin: October 24, 2007 - What Now on Gold? - 24-10-2007
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In my article, When Gold Speaks a Thousand Words, published on this website on April 23, 2007, I posited my very positive view on gold. I wrote how that view, held by me for some time, had led me to make several gold coin and bullion purchases in the $300?s and $400?s per ounce in recent years.
Since that time, and especially quite recently, gold has rallied strongly, and has risen past its 2006 high to a present price of approximately $753.99. Oil has also risen in a spectacular fashion into the high $80?s per barrel. These support my conclusion in another article I penned for this website, published on February 26, 2007, Inflation and the Stock Market: Does Anyone Remember the Seventies?, that the gold price, oil and oil service companies stock price booms we have witnessed for the last few years are quite similar to the booms in like instruments last seen during the late 70?s. However, that boom in the late seventies and early eighties represented a long term peak in oil prices around $40 - per barrel and the gold price around $850.
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The Level of Confidence in the Stock Market and Our Social Contract - 01-10-2007
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There is unsaid in our daily life a social contract between all the players. Individuals are able to live their daily lives in a manner without much fear because of this contract, unless one lives in an area where this contract has broken down. You might call this unseen force in ordinary life the confidence that people have that their persons, social, economic, spiritual lives will be protected from the actions of others in that society, or from their government. We have enacted laws, and have institutional structures to protect us, such as the judicial system and religion, however imperfect they are. We have laws on the books to protect the citizenry. The Ten Commandments states that it is not right, for example, for men or women to kill each other, or to steal, and so on.
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Bad Banks, Good Banks during a Credit Crunch: Opportunity Knocks - 08-08-2007
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This article might be titled, How You Can Make a Fortune by Investing in Strong Banks During a Credit Crunch. In my article Monday March 5, 2007: Are Stocks Still Worthwhile Investments? I stated in reference to at that time lesser possibility of contagion in the subprime mortgage problem, "The only thing that I believe could affect the economy and equities would be for the authorities to starve the system of providing mortgage money to potential borrowers ? in other words, a credit crunch."
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Getting Back to Basics with Your Investments - 19-07-2007
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It would be all to easy for me to espouse various stock market investment theories ? when to be successful in investing, I argue that one should stay the course of longer term investment as described in my book, A Way to Wealth ? The Art of Investing in Common Stocks. Sure, we have had many sharp and fearful declines in the market, which I have pointed out in some of my other articles ? and there will be more in the future.
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Be Conservative in the Stock Market - Make More $$$ - 11-06-2007
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In my eBook, A Way to Wealth ? The Art of Investing in Common Stocks, I outline my investing journey through both good and awful stock markets, and tell how I am to the current date winning the battle for long term profits in equities and mutual funds. The eBook profiles my unique technique for profitably investing in stocks and mutual funds. Much of my results have been achieved and profits retained by choosing stocks and funds more conservatively.
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The Best Way I Know to Build Stock Market Wealth: Well Chosen Mutual Funds - 08-05-2007
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In my eBook, A Way to Wealth ? The Art of Investing in Common Stocks, I share my philosophy and practice of selecting mutual funds managed by value managers in order to build wealth over time. Most of the funds in which I have personally chosen to invest fit that category. So far, my original investments in most of the funds in which I have invested have multiplied over the years and I have by and large been satisfied with their performance in both up and down markets. My funds have included the Templeton Growth Fund, First Eagle Global Fund, and the Royce Opportunity Fund (sold).
I think the investor before purchasing a fund should look at the track record of his prospective choices, preferably over at least one full market cycle (bull and bear market performance). Look for funds which perform well in down markets as well as bull markets. You will be grateful you did if these funds are again able to sustain comparable performance when there is a bear market. I discuss this in my ebook as well as in the FAQs of my website.